Altman’s warning extended beyond breakthroughs in research to the radical reshaping of the global workforce
Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, has delivered one of his most aggressive forecasts on the timeline for artificial intelligence, predicting that superintelligence—AI systems capable of performing tasks at or beyond human level—will emerge by the end of the decade.
Speaking at a recent event in Berlin, Altman suggested that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could arrive as soon as 2029, and certainly by 2030. He emphasised the accelerating pace of development, noting that society must brace for a future where machines outthink humans.
“I would certainly say by the end of this decade, so, by 2030, if we don’t have models that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I’d be very surprised,” Altman said.
Threat To Workforce
Altman’s warning extended beyond breakthroughs in research to the radical reshaping of the global workforce. He cautioned that AI could soon replace a significant proportion of economic activity.
“I can easily imagine a world where 30-40 per cent of the tasks that happen in the economy today get done by AI in the not very distant future,” he stated.
While the rise of AI may not eliminate entire job categories immediately, Altman expects certain roles to face immediate automation. He specifically pointed to customer support roles handled over the phone or computer as “better done by an AI,” suggesting those workers “will lose their jobs.”
The future of computer programming, he noted, is also profoundly uncertain, as developers are already using AI tools to become “hugely more productive,” fundamentally changing the nature of the job.
Balancing Risk & Reward
While highly optimistic about the potential for AI to drive unprecedented scientific progress and productivity, Altman reiterated his persistent warnings about existential risks.
He stressed that if the technology is not governed properly, it could pose dangers, and has previously called for global regulatory frameworks to ensure AI is developed safely.
“We are on track to see AI exceed human intelligence within the next five years,” Altman concluded, underscoring the urgent need to balance the immense promise of the technology with careful governance to mitigate the inevitable peril.
