PNB’s Chief Security Officer Major Gaurav Uppal says, companies must embed geopolitical risk analysis into their core strategy to navigate a fragmenting world
Global geopolitical tensions are creating a new corporate risk map, forcing businesses to move from reactive measures to proactive strategy, according to a security expert. The intensifying rivalry between major powers is fragmenting the global economy, making trade and finance the new weapons of choice.
Major Gaurav P S Uppal (retd.), Chief Security Officer Of Punjab National Bank, stated that the current era differs from the old Cold War. “The earlier Cold War was about ideology—communism versus capitalism—and they didn’t do trade. Now, they are the biggest trade partners, but the conflict is about technological dominance,” said Uppal during a keynote address.
He described a shift from a unipolar world to a “multidimensional disorder,” where countries like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are contesting the status quo. This new landscape is shaped by competition for technological dominance and economic influence across regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.
From Global Risk To Corporate Bottom Line
Uppal explained that this volatility directly impacts business continuity. “Polycrisis—whether it’s Ukraine-Russia, the attack by Hamas on Israel, or even violent regime changes in our neighbours, Nepal and Bangladesh—means that any kind of business model is unstable,” he said.
These events can disrupt supply chains, trigger financial volatility, and influence global economic growth and inflation. The rise of nationalism and protectionism is also leading to a potential slowdown of globalisation, with governments and companies actively seeking to diversify their trade partners and supply routes.
“We are arguably in the most economically disruptive period in decades,” Uppal added.
Corporate Response: Building Resilience And Seizing Opportunity
In this environment, Uppal argued that collaboration and deep risk analysis are key. He advised that companies must embed geopolitical risk analysis into their core strategy and governance.
Business leaders should not only focus on mitigating risks but also on identifying new opportunities. This involves asking strategic questions: “Will our competitor’s product be less expensive because of new tariffs or taxes? What new alliances can create opportunities for us to grow or change our cost structure?”
Uppal recommended that businesses invest in specialised capabilities, such as appointing geopolitical officers and setting up intelligence units. These units would provide early warnings of emerging events and develop response plans to protect supply chains from external shocks.
Opportunities can be found in accelerated growth, optimising operations, and developing new capabilities. Companies can gain market share where competitors face disproportionate tariffs or can rebalance their portfolios to focus on newly viable segments.
India’s Strategic Position And Corporate Impact
Shifting focus to India, Uppal highlighted that Indian companies are navigating complex trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions, but are also presented with strategic openings.
A key impact is supply chain restructuring, where India is a top contender as companies diversify manufacturing away from China. “Companies like Dell, HP, Foxconn, and Lenovo are investing heavily here, generating employment and boosting production,” he noted.
India’s strategy of “multiple alignment” allows it to engage with competing power blocs. The government is actively pursuing free trade agreements with the European Union and United Kingdom to help corporations expand and mitigate risks.
Sector-specific opportunities are emerging in defence, where India is becoming a manufacturing hub, and in information technology and pharmaceuticals, which can benefit from a depreciating rupee. Initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) are designed to boost domestic production and hedge against global supply shocks.
Uppal concluded that Indian corporates must transition from reactive to proactive risk management. “Those who adopt early will gain a competitive advantage and will be able to protect their long-term value,” he said.
The event’s moderator echoed the sentiment, noting that the implications span all sectors. “Companies must be agile and dynamic, and accordingly they can plan,” the moderator said, suggesting that many firms may need to bring geopolitical expertise into their corporate structures.
